Sensitivity Analysis in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment

Student: Argyro Theodorakatou
Supervisors: Dr Carlo Lai, Dr Fabio Sabetta


The scope of this thesis is to define those parameters that are the most important input in a Seismic Hazard Analysis.

The subject of the current work was provoked from the great differences that were detected between the two hazard maps that have been recently produced in Italy, one of them conducted from the Department of Civil Protection [D. Albarello et al., 1999] and the other one more recently produced from the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology [M. Stucchi et al., 2004]. The latter of the hazard maps shows significantly lower values in the whole of the Italian peninsula, than the respective ones of the former.

Since the introduction of the new Italian Hazard map, no detailed sensitivity analysis has been implemented, in order to become clear what the main reasons of the discrepancies are. Between the two Hazard Maps, a number of different choices in the selection of the input parameters have occurred, making it impossible to ascribe the discordances into one or more of the data entering the Seismic Hazard Assessment that produced the maps.

Through this work it will become clear, how much, if any, is the contribution of each input parameter to the final outcome. A number of factors will be examined and the most decisive ones for the abrupt reduction of Peak Ground Acceleration values will be pointed out.

You may download a digital version of this MSc dissertation here.