A probabilistic method for seismic loss estimation

Student: Marko Schotanus
Supervisors: Prof. P. Pinto, Prof. G.M. Calvi


This report presents a fully probabilistic method for seismic loss estimation. As total loss is shown to be partly dependent on the probability of collapse, a conventional result of reliability assessment, an existing procedure for fragility analysis is slightly modified and extended for this purpose. The method accounts for the dependence of the response on the ground-motion and structural properties through an approximate linear response model based on a limited number of structural analyses. This response model is a key element in keeping affordable the procedure that uses simulation to compute the quantities of interest, i.e. the loss distribution or characteristic values thereof. The resulting formulation has as its main advantage that dependency between the capacity and demand terms, and between demand terms individually, is accounted for directly. The proposed procedure is applied to a reinforced concrete arch bridge. The application shows that the additional computational burden related to the convolution of the risk with the consequences is very reasonable when compared to the one related to the establishment of the response model. This feature makes the underlying reliability method particularly suitable for the proposed extension.

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