Short course on Probabilistic Seismic Risk Assessment of Structures

Pavia, 6-10 October 2003

After three decades of continuous research efforts, probabilistic methods for seismic risk assessment of structures have reached a stage of maturity whereby all inessential formalisms and mathematical complexities have been removed, in such a way that application of these methods has become affordable by non-specialists with a minimum of additional learning. Significant examples of the increasing diffusion of probabilistic approaches are the SAC method, developed with the support of the US Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), aimed at probability-based design of steel buildings, as well as the systematic adoption of a unified probabilistic framework for all types of seismic risk/losses evaluations for single structures and large infrastructures by the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Center (PEER).

This short course will start by providing the basic notions of probability and random process theories, as required for a probabilistic description of the seismic action and the determination of the probability of the maximum structural response. This will form an adequate basis for the second and most important part of the course that will consist in the presentation of two recent effective methods of seismic reliability analysis suitable for application to existing structures. Both methods will be described in full detail emphasising their respective range of applicability and possible extensions, and comparative examples will be illustrated.

It is believed that the course will offer the participants a succinct yet thorough theoretical exposure to the essential aspects of probabilistic approaches for the evaluation of seismic safety, as well as a hands-on experience on a subject that represents an essential tool in the framework of performance-based earthquake engineering.

Further details can be obtained by following the links below: