Seismic Risk Assessment and Loss Estimation

IUSS Pavia
EE - Earthquake Engineering
Spring 2012
Date (from - to):
05/03/2012 – 30/03/2012

In the last few decades, a dramatic increase in the losses caused by natural catastrophes has been observed worldwide. Reasons for the increased losses are manifold, though certainly include the increase of world population, the development of new “super-cities” (with a population greater than 2 million) - many of which are located in zones of high seismic hazard - and the high vulnerability of modern societies and technologies, such as the built environment. This course will deal with the treatment of exposure, hazard and vulnerability in earthquake loss models for urban areas and the propagation of the uncertainties within such models. Various case study applications involving the state-of-the-art in catastrophe loss assessment will be presented.
The structure of the course will be as follows:
Week 1 - Assessment of seismic vulnerability of single structures (Nonlinear Static and Dynamic Procedures)
Week 2 - Assessment of seismic vulnerability of groups of structures (Empirical and Analytical Methods)
Week 3 - Hazard, Exposure, Human/Economic Losses, Remote Sensing
Week 4 - Example applications (Istanbul, Italy, Messina, Priolo) and related initiatives (GEM, WRN)

Suggested readings:

Crowley, H., Pinho, R., Bommer, J.J. and Bird, J.F. “Development of a displacement-based earthquake loss assessment methodology,” ROSE Report 2006/01, IUSS Press, Pavia, Italy.

FEMA [2003] “HAZUS-MH Technical Manual,” Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington D.C.

Coburn, A. and Spence, R. [2002] “Earthquake Protection,” 2nd Edition, Wiley and Sons