Seismic Hazard Based on Seismogenic Faults

IUSS Pavia
ES - Engineering Seismology
Fall 2012
Date (from - to):
10/01/2013 – 15/02/2013

In the most recent international and national research projects on seismic hazard assessment, seismic sources are defined both as areas and as faults. The two models are then combined in a logic tree.

Whereas for area sources a large knowhow is available and many applications were done in Italy and worldwide, the use of fault sources for seismic hazard is still at the test stage. Furthermore, some applications seem to evidence strong differences with respect to results obtained with area sources.

During the course, different approaches to the geometric definition and seismic characterization of fault sources will be analysed and adopted; the resulting seismic hazard maps will be compared in order to better understand the main sources of uncertainty. The results will be also compared with those derived by the more traditional source zones model.

Suggested readings:

  • Basili, R., G. Valensise, P. Vannoli, P. Burrato, U. Fracassi, S. Mariano, M. M. Tiberti, and E. Boschi (2008). The Database of Individual Seismogenic Sources (DISS), version 3: summarizing 20 years of research on Italy's earthquake geology, Tectonophysics 453, 20-43, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2007.04.014
  • Musson R.M.W. (2012). The Effect of Magnitude Uncertainty on Earthquake Activity Rates. Bull. Soc. Seismol. Am., 102 (6), 2771–2775, doi: 10.1785/0120110224
  • Pace, B., D. Albarello, P. Boncio, M. Dolce, P. Galli, P. Messina, L. Peruzza, F. Sabetta, T. Sanò, and F. Visini (2011). Predicted ground motion after the L’Aquila 2009 earthquake (Italy, Mw 6.3): input spectra for seismic microzoning, Bull. Earthq. Eng. 9, 199–230.
  • Pace, B., L. Peruzza, and F. Visini (2010). LASSCI 2009.2: Layered earthquake rupture forecast model for Central Italy, submitted to the CSEP project, Ann. Geophys. 53, 85–97.
  • Pace, B., L. Peruzza, G. Lavecchia, and P. Boncio (2006). Layered seismogenic source model and probabilistic seismic-hazard analyses in Central Italy, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 96, 107–132.
  • Stucchi M., Meletti C., Montaldo V., Crowley H., Calvi G.M., Boschi E. (2011). Seismic Hazard Assessment (2003-2009) for the Italian Building Code. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 101(4), 1885–1911. DOI: 10.1785/0120100130.
  • Woessner J. (2012). Fault Source – Background Model: Concept, Theory and Examples. Draft Version 1 (August 29th, 2012). Internal Report of SHARE Project (available only for the course purposes).